As the UK’s peak Christmas trading period winds down, retailers and logistics providers enter what has quietly become one of the most operationally demanding phases of the year: returns season. While outbound parcel volumes fall sharply after December, pressure on supply chains does not disappear – it simply reverses. January and early February now act as a stress test for reverse logistics networks, as millions of unwanted gifts and impulse purchases flow back through the system at speed and scale.

In the UK, return rates spike significantly after Christmas, particularly across fashion, consumer electronics, toys, cosmetics and homewares – categories that dominate online sales in the run up to Christmas. Industry estimates suggest that between 20% and 30% of Christmas purchases are returned, placing enormous strain on distribution centres, carrier networks and customer service teams. Unlike outbound fulfilment, returns are inherently unpredictable. Items arrive unevenly, in varying conditions, and often with limited visibility – making fast inspection, decision-making and inventory reintegration far more complex.

This reality is prompting UK supply chain leaders to rethink how technology is deployed beyond peak delivery periods. Advanced analytics and AI, commonly used to manage Black Friday and Christmas demand spikes, are increasingly being applied to returns forecasting and processing. Predictive models enable warehouses to anticipate return volumes by product type and geography, helping to plan labour, space and transport capacity more effectively. Intelligent decision engines can also determine, in near real time, whether a returned item should be restocked, refurbished, redirected to resale channels or written off – a critical capability in a margin-sensitive post-Christmas environment.

Visibility is equally crucial. In a UK market where next-day delivery and instant refunds have become the norm, consumers expect returns to be fast, transparent and frictionless. IoT-enabled tracking and event-based monitoring provide real-time insight into where returned goods are, when they will arrive, and in what condition. Without this visibility, delays in reverse logistics can quickly damage customer trust – particularly when refunds are delayed during a period of heightened household cost sensitivity.

The operational impact is most acutely felt within UK distribution centres. Facilities designed to maximise outbound efficiency must rapidly pivot to support inspection, sorting and reintegration workflows, often within tight space constraints. Ongoing labour shortages and rising sustainability expectations — including pressure to reduce waste and unnecessary transport miles – further complicate the challenge. In response, many UK operators are deploying voice-directed picking, automated sortation and autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) as part of broader warehouse management strategies. When tightly integrated with a warehouse management system (WMS), these intelligent supply chain execution technologies together help standardise returns handling, improve productivity and scale operations during peak reverse-logistics periods.

From Infios’s perspective, the post-Christmas period highlights a broader shift in UK supply chain execution. Returns are no longer a secondary process or an unavoidable cost to be minimised in isolation. They are a strategic capability that directly impacts profitability, sustainability performance and customer loyalty. Intelligent supply chain execution platforms that unify warehouse, transport, inventory and analytics functions enable organisations to manage reverse flows proactively – rather than firefighting once products are already back in the network.

The weeks following Christmas make one thing clear for UK retailers: logistics performance is no longer judged solely on how quickly orders are delivered in December. It is judged on how intelligently value is recovered in January – through visibility, speed of decision-making and a seamless customer experience. As return volumes continue to rise year on year, mastery of reverse logistics is fast becoming a defining competitive advantage in the modern UK supply chain.