The latest report from the World Bank on cocoa shows how factors like extreme weather conditions in West Africa led to a 14% decline in production in 2024.

The latest crop season was one of the most difficult for producers, with prices skyrocketing― however, the demand hasn’t been affected. 

Considering how vulnerable cocoa is to sudden changes in climate conditions, it’s no wonder that the bean deficit has led to low-profit margins. With heavy flooding and crop diseases, farmers struggled to reap what they sowed.

The fungal black pod diseases that affected crop yields intensified due to the humid weather, so no fungicide was successful in eliminating them. 

Hence, there will be long-term repercussions on the global cocoa trade, with popular chocolate brands raising prices again in 2025. Chocolate makers must also navigate low inventories as bean processing is underwhelming. 

But besides the obvious uncontrollable reasons for low production, several deep-rooted structural problems will continuously affect the cocoa market. 

Smallholder farmers and their never-ending struggles 

Ghana and Ivory Coast are responsible for about 60% of the world’s global supply of chocolate. But while most people imagine full-scale production to generate this much cocoa, the job is done by smallholder farmers whose lives are dedicated to the laborious work of harvesting and processing the cocoa. At the same time, the well-known unethical practices within these farms show a darker side of the story, in which child labor and hazardous work are overlooked. 

Fortunately, a rise in sustainable and ethical cocoa manufacturer structures has the potential to counteract these issues and offer citizens the right to work in good conditions and receive proper payment. The demand for green and respectable cocoa production creates a new and better industry where chocolate lovers don’t become customers at the expense of someone else’s struggle. 

Still, prices will continue rising 

While some expect the weather forecast to be gentler in 2025 in West Africa and the prices to balance somewhere this year, the challenges will continue. While competitors like Ofi start inclusive coffee communities and work towards sustainable forest management in the Ivory Coast, chocolate makers take advantage of ingredient substitutions to keep sales steady. 

Considering the high costs of cocoa, brands are working on non-chocolate products or expanding their gummy and fruity offerings. For example, even for last year’s products, companies started experimenting with candy staples to boost sales during Halloween. While the rising cocoa prices are a considerable problem for companies, there will always be alternatives to help them navigate issues. 

The effects of climate change might intensify 

While other regions of the world are the most significant contributors to climate change, countries like Africa are the most affected, which is why we expect the future to be as damaging in terms of unexpected weather. 

The African climate will face higher temperatures, uncommon rain patterns, and massive drought, exposing about 118 million people to extreme weather events by 2030. The economic and climatic impact on communities is concerning, especially since there’s already been a humanitarian crisis in the country, from the drought in the Southern region to the massive rainfalls in East Africa. 

Therefore, it may be possible that cocoa production will suffer long-term in the next ten to fifteen years, and this could’ve been prevented with proper investment. Deforestation, sensitivity to climate change, and the high use of chemical fertilizers are difficult to counteract. 

Are cocoa alternatives doable? 

While companies could create or adopt chocolate alternatives for their sweets, the problem persists. Ghana and the Ivory Coast workers rely mostly on the cocoa industry, so less demand for chocolate could impact their opportunities to access income, considering the environmental offering. 

At the same time, the daily minimum wage for workers in Ghana, for example, barely reached 1.1 U.S. dollars in 2022. This may be a considerable increase when considering a ten-year timeframe, but it’s not enough for the amount of labor it takes to farm cocoa. 

Therefore, there should be a balance between the demand for chocolate and working conditions in places where cocoa grows best since certain conditions are required for the crops to yield successful yields. However, few know how cocoa becomes chocolate to appreciate the hard work. 

What’s the process of cocoa turning into chocolate? 

The tropical crop of cocoa requires a few months to be harvested. When the time comes, workers have to remove the pods carefully with a specific tool to protect the flower cushions from damage. After that, employees clean the cocoa beans and let them ferment for a few days for the flavor to come out. 

Fermentation is followed by drying, which reduces humidity from 55% to 7.5%. Traditional methods include sun drying, which takes about a week, but machinery and modern solutions are also used in some farms. 

The flavor of the chocolate is also determined by the roasting step, for which every farm has a unique recipe and methodology. The roasting is followed by winnowing, in which workers separate the shell from the meat of the bean (nibs). Depending on the final product, the latter will be ground into paste or fluid. 

Some farms or producers also include alkalization to alter the taste and color of liquors or powders, known as Dutch processing. In this step, the cocoa material is mixed with elements like sodium hydroxide or potassium carbonate to create unique chocolate colors. 

But that’s not all, as farmers also perform:

• Liquor pressing;
• Cocoa grinding;
• Extract cocoa butter;
• Manufacture chocolate through batching;

How do you think the cocoa industry will evolve in the future? 

While the demand for chocolate doesn’t cease, cocoa farmers struggle to maintain good-quality crops. Growingly aggressive weather events, from drought to rainfall, contributed to a massive decrease in crop yield. This will most likely intensify in the future since climate change will intensify, and investment in the sector will be scarce compared to what it should be. Until change happens, workers will continue their cocoa harvest, which will be the primary source of income in areas like Ghana.