You can feel when trucking capacity starts to tighten. The quotes come back slower. The “we’ll see what we can do” emails start piling up. It’s subtle at first — until it isn’t.

Retailers know this dance too well. One month, you’re juggling too much inventory. Next, your orders are stuck three states away because there aren’t enough drivers to move them.

Forecasting capacity isn’t glamorous, but it’s the difference between shelves that stay stocked and shelves that stay empty.

So, how do you actually see it coming? Let’s break it down.

1. Start With What’s Actually Changing

The trucking landscape isn’t collapsing—it’s recalibrating.

According to the 2026 trucking industry forecast from TransPlus, the industry’s next growth phase will be steady, not explosive. Freight volumes are expected to rise as e-commerce rebounds and regional supply chains expand closer to customers.

But the real constraint won’t be trucks—it’ll be people.

The American Trucking Associations projects a driver shortage of more than 160,000 by 2030. That shortage is structural, not cyclical. Drivers are aging out faster than new ones are joining, and lifestyle expectations are changing.

Meanwhile, the push for shorter delivery windows is driving more regional hauls, putting pressure on local capacity even as national rates stay flat. If your forecasting model doesn’t account for those micro-shifts, you’re missing what’s actually driving volatility.

2. Don’t Chase Data — Interpret It

Retailers tend to drown in dashboards. Freight indices, rate trackers, predictive tools — all flashing warnings in different colors. But data doesn’t mean much if you don’t translate it into your own rhythm.

Instead of tracking everything, pick a few key signals and watch how they move together:

• Load-to-truck ratio (DAT): Measures the number of loads competing per available truck. Rising fast? You’re about to fight for space.
• Tender rejections (FreightWaves SONAR): When carriers reject more contracted freight, they’re chasing better-paying spot rates — a reliable red flag.
• Diesel prices (U.S. EIA): Freight rates almost always trail fuel hikes. Rising diesel mean tightening costs.

But here’s the twist: numbers are just clues. The real forecasting happens in the gaps.

When your regional carrier starts asking for longer lead times or your broker mentions drivers shifting routes for higher-paying lanes, that’s qualitative data. And it’s often ahead of the curve.

The best logistics planners keep notes from every carrier call. Over time, those notes predict markets better than any AI-powered tool.

3. Map Your Supply Chain Like a Weather System

You can’t forecast trucking capacity in isolation. It’s all connected — ports, warehouses, consumer demand, even the weather.

Start with your own patterns. Pull your last two years of shipment data. Look at where your spikes hit — not just by season, but by week.

For instance, if your freight volume triples in October and most of your suppliers are within 500 miles of port cities, guess what happens when import volumes rise at the same time? Congestion, rate hikes, delays. Every year, the same cycle.

The smartest retailers I’ve worked with treat their network like a weather map. They know which lanes are “storm-prone” — high volatility, driver shortages, spot-rate surges — and they build buffers around those. It’s not perfect science. It’s pattern literacy.

4. Use Scenarios, Not Predictions

Nobody can tell you exactly what capacity will look like in May 2026. The goal isn’t accuracy — it’s readiness. Build three plausible market scenarios and prep responses for each:

• Tight Market: Freight demand outpaces capacity. Rates climb 6–8%. You lock early contracts and expand your carrier base.
• Balanced Market: Modest growth. Rates rise 2–3%. You renegotiate longer terms but leave room for flexible spot buying.
• Soft Market: Too many trucks chasing freight. Rates drop. You focus on service reliability, not chasing discounts.

Keep those playbooks visible — literally taped on the wall of your logistics office if you have to. Because when the shift happens, you won’t have time to build them from scratch.

5. Blend Tech with Gut

AI tools and predictive analytics help — they really do. Gartner found that over 60% of supply chain leaders now use predictive or prescriptive analytics to plan logistics.

But no model replaces instinct.

The best forecasters trust data and their lived patterns. They know when something feels off — a lull in driver calls, an unusual quote swing, a delay from a carrier who’s never late.

It’s like reading the road through the vibration of the steering wheel. You can sense the change before the numbers confirm it.

Closing Thoughts

If you’ve been in retail long enough, you know the best operators aren’t the ones who predict the future. They’re the ones who notice change early.

Trucking in 2026 won’t be easy. Capacity will fluctuate, rates will climb modestly, and driver availability will still pinch certain lanes. But if you treat forecasting like maintenance — regular, flexible, and human — you’ll weather it.

Because forecasting isn’t about charts or models. It’s about keeping your hand on the pulse of the supply chain and learning how to feel the tremors before the quake.