Many logistics operations are at risk without even knowing it. Operations may seem to be running smoothly: routes are getting completed, goods are getting delivered and service levels are on track. But what happens when a crisis or disruption hits?

Just because something appears to be okay today doesn’t mean it will be tomorrow. And with the current geopolitical landscape looking uncertain, rising fuel costs, basic road infrastructure in the UK declining and the constant threat of driver shortages, unexpected issues can quickly derail a logistics business’s bottom line. Andrew Tavener, Head of Marketing at Descartes, believes that an “OK” performance for logistics businesses isn’t a sign of strength; it’s often a sign that problems have yet to be exposed…

The Disruptions Set to Stress Test Logistics Operations in 2026

Operations rarely fail under normal conditions. It’s when pressure is applied that weaknesses become visible. However, with fleets operating on tighter margins, typically around 2–3%, according to industry data from the Road Haulage Association, there’s little room for error. With fuel prices expected to continue rising due to the Iran/US conflict, the knock-on effect is higher operating costs for fleets across the UK, especially those running large last-mile delivery networks where fuel remains one of the biggest expenses. These fluctuating prices are likely to keep the fuel market unpredictable over the coming months.

The UK’s road network is also under increasing strain. There are now thought to be more than one million potholes across the country. This problem shows little sign of easing as demonstrated by the Asphalt Industry Alliance’s latest ALARM Survey, which estimates the UK’s road maintenance backlog has reached a record £18.62 billion, signaling that infrastructure will only continue to deteriorate. Therefore, businesses should expect increasing wear and tear on vehicles and rising maintenance costs. On top of all this, the recent warning from Insite about a looming HGV driver shortage, following the loss of driver training funding, highlights an urgent need for logistics operators to reduce pressure on existing drivers or expect to lose them altogether.

It is when these kinds of pressures eventually affect a logistics business that is operating ‘OK’ that the cracks show. These challenges don’t always cause immediate failure. Instead, they gradually erode profitability. Operators need to ensure they are getting ahead of the curve and ensuring their hidden inefficiencies don’t compound quickly, impacting both cost and service.

Ever-Rising Customer Expectations

As established previously, the landscape in logistics is never truly stable. This is also the case for customer expectations. Descartes’ latest Ecommerce and Home Delivery Consumer Sentiment Study found that 66% of consumers experienced delivery issues, rising to 79% among under-35s, highlighting a clear gap between what businesses deliver and what customers expect. At the same time, satisfaction remains low, with only 11% of under-35s saying they are consistently satisfied with delivery experiences. These problems are exacerbated when demand increases over seasonal peaks. The combination of high customer expectations and the lack of tolerance for errors means that even the smallest issue in the logistics pipeline will lead to a negative customer review and ruin any long-term loyalty.

Moving from Reactive Operations to Active Planning

While conditions are undoubtedly challenging for logistics operators, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The operators leading the way have already taken a new approach to planning. These businesses are looking beyond their current fleet performance and are stress testing their businesses consistently. This type of scenario-based planning exposes weaknesses early, which allows them to act before issues begin to impact cost or service performance.

One of the best ways to move towards scenario-based planning is to enlist a system that allows access to real operational data. Organisations can test network configurations, refine routes based on actual constraints, and balance cost, capacity and service more effectively.

With this kind of technology usage, previous time-consuming decisions can be made far more efficiently. When visibility or data is limited, routes aren’t as effective, and ETAs become unreliable. Therefore, operational inefficiencies increase, driving up costs and reducing service consistency. However, with real-time execution data, businesses can continuously refine routes, respond to issues as they arise and build operations that reflect how deliveries actually perform on the road, helping to deliver a more cost-effective and resilient delivery operation.

Conclusion

Sure, “OK” performance can hold when conditions are good. But logistics operations rarely operate in predictable conditions for long. As cost pressures increase, networks become more complex and customer expectations continue to rise, the margin for error continues to shrink. In this environment, performance that is simply “OK” won’t remain viable.

With the geopolitical climate affecting almost all aspects of logistics operations, businesses must strengthen how their operations perform under pressure. That means improving planning accuracy, increasing visibility across execution and using data to make more informed decisions at both a strategic and operational level. Those that take steps to address these areas will be better positioned to control costs, maintain service levels and adapt as conditions change. Those who don’t risk being exposed when disruption inevitably occurs.