September’s inflation numbers present a messy picture.

At the headline level CPI is flat month-on-month, but under the surface there’s a lot of moving parts. Food prices have fallen while more domestically exposed sectors like restaurants and hotels have seen prices rise. Higher prices for motor fuel are also having an effect.

That makes it a difficult set of numbers to interpret – especially for interest are setters at the Bank of England. Had inflation continued to fall, as many had expected, then there would be a strong case for rates to stay where they are – slowly squeezing inflation out of the economy. However, if inflation remains stuck at its current stubbornly high level, that’s a whole different kettle of fish.

No-one wants inflation to remain stuck where it is for an extended period. If the Bank think’s that’s a danger, they may well feel their only option is to set rates on an upwards trajectory once again.